Political Insights

From The Armchair Warrior

The Federal Election has been called. The date, Saturday May 3rd.

Many political commentators are predicting a very tight race and the money is pointing to the first hung parliament since 2010. Both the major parties are saying that this is the most important election for decades and it will decide the fate of our nation’s future. Both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have declared your vote this year to be more valuable than ever before.

The LNP wants you to ask yourself the question ‘Am I better off than 3 years ago’. While Labour’s aims is to convince you that a change of government would be worse for you, your family, and the nation.

Over the next 4 weeks expect to hear local candidates echo the messages and slogans of their party. You will be swamped with a lot of argie bargie political spin, promises and tales of why not to vote for the other guy or girl. This armchair warrior will be watching closely and breaking it down for you.

At the time of writing voters of Dawson have 5 candidates to choose from. They are current member for Dawson, Andrew Willcox for the LNP, new Labour candidate, Neil Wallace, Paula Creen having a second crack as the Green candidate, Amanda Nickson representing Family First, and Michael Lockye for Trumpet of Patriots. You will also have to vote for the Senate but we might leave that for another time. For now, let’s concentrate on what your vote in Dawson means.

Historically, the contest in Dawson has largely been between Labour and the LNP, with LNP (and Nationals prior to party merger in 2008) only losing the seat once since 1975.

Nationally, minor parties and independents have been taking votes away from the major parties in recent elections and their relevance in 2025 can not be discounted. Andrew Willcox won the 2022 election with a 2 party preferred margin of 10.42%.

While this margin appears safe and Andrew Willcox (the former Mayor of the Whitsundays) is well liked, seen by many as doing a good job representing Dawson, he can not afford to take the previous results for granted.

Federally, this election is history making. If Albanese wins, it will be the first time a Prime Minister has won two elections since John Howard in 2004, while an Albanese loss will be the first time since 1931 that a first term government has not been returned.

The Canberra heavys have outlined their credentials, their promises, their ambitions for the nation, and are hitting the campaign trail hard to win your vote. Reality is while Dawson has 5 local candidates, the federal outcome will either see Anthony Albanese returned as prime Minister or a new government under Peter Dutton, albeit one of these might be leading a minority government.

Good luck to all the Candidates.

Best wishes, from the Armchair.

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